多空爭奪明顯 期銅暫時以震蕩思路對待

周五早間(jian)，滬期銅(tong)(tong)主力1706合(he)約開(kai)于46280元/噸。盤初在均線(xian)附近摸高至(zhi)46340元/噸，隨后遭(zao)遇空頭增(zeng)倉(cang)(cang)施壓，滬銅(tong)(tong)向(xiang)下(xia)(xia)刺破下(xia)(xia)軌(gui)，低位45820元/噸處吸(xi)引(yin)多頭增(zeng)倉(cang)(cang)，滬銅(tong)(tong)在45940元/噸一(yi)線(xian)窄幅波動，午后兩度上探日均線(xian)受(shou)阻，尾盤緊貼日均線(xian)趨于平穩(wen)，收于46110元/噸，漲70元/噸，成交量(liang)減19.6萬手(shou)(shou)(shou)至(zhi)315686手(shou)(shou)(shou)，倉(cang)(cang)增(zeng)9176手(shou)(shou)(shou)至(zhi)238902手(shou)(shou)(shou)。日內(nei)滬期銅(tong)(tong)多空爭奪明顯，缺乏(fa)外盤指引(yin)，滬銅(tong)(tong)在下(xia)(xia)軌(gui)處表(biao)現并不穩(wen)定，日內(nei)收十字星線(xian)，料短期繼續(xu)在下(xia)(xia)軌(gui)處整固，尋求反撲(pu)機會。

外盤方面，周五，LME因英國“復(fu)活節”休市(shi)。下周一復(fu)市(shi)。

宏觀方面，本周地緣政(zheng)(zheng)治局(ju)勢(shi)(shi)緊張(zhang)，美(mei)、俄對于敘(xu)利亞問題仍未*達成一致意見，周后期(qi)美(mei)軍(jun)又向阿(a)富汗進行軍(jun)事(shi)打擊(ji)，地緣政(zheng)(zheng)治是否(fou)升級仍需(xu)密切關注(zhu)。國(guo)(guo)內(nei)宏觀數(shu)據表(biao)現(xian)參差不齊，3月國(guo)(guo)家鐵(tie)路貨物發送(song)量同比大(da)增，國(guo)(guo)內(nei)CPI不及預(yu)期(qi)且PPI出現(xian)拐點，外貿(mao)數(shu)據顯示國(guo)(guo)內(nei)貿(mao)易形(xing)勢(shi)(shi)改善，國(guo)(guo)內(nei)經濟(ji)的回暖能否(fou)延(yan)續仍然存在(zai)些許疑慮。

市(shi)場(chang)方面(mian)(mian)，上海電(dian)解銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)現貨(huo)(huo)(huo)對當(dang)月(yue)(yue)合(he)約報(bao)(bao)(bao)升(sheng)水(shui)10元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)-升(sheng)水(shui)70元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，平水(shui)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)成交(jiao)(jiao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)45740元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)-45940元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，升(sheng)水(shui)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)成交(jiao)(jiao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)45760元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)-45980元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。缺(que)乏(fa)外盤(pan)(pan)指引，短期(qi)投機資金令滬(hu)期(qi)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)波幅劇(ju)烈，當(dang)月(yue)(yue)合(he)約臨近zui后(hou)交(jiao)(jiao)易日(ri)，市(shi)場(chang)部(bu)(bu)分貨(huo)(huo)(huo)源(yuan)出現對隔(ge)月(yue)(yue)報(bao)(bao)(bao)價(jia)(jia)貼(tie)水(shui)100元(yuan)——貼(tie)水(shui)50元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，隔(ge)月(yue)(yue)基(ji)差(cha)(cha)維持在(zai)100元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)以上，現銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)對當(dang)月(yue)(yue)升(sheng)水(shui)跟隨基(ji)差(cha)(cha)被小幅推升(sheng)，早市(shi)部(bu)(bu)分投機商入市(shi)吸收低(di)價(jia)(jia)貨(huo)(huo)(huo)源(yuan)，在(zai)近午(wu)(wu)間(jian)(jian)盤(pan)(pan)面(mian)(mian)拉升(sheng)后(hou)獲利出貨(huo)(huo)(huo)，下(xia)游(you)按(an)需(xu)基(ji)礎(chu)上低(di)位接貨(huo)(huo)(huo)略增(zeng)，市(shi)場(chang)交(jiao)(jiao)投積極性較昨日(ri)略有(you)改(gai)善。下(xia)午(wu)(wu)滬(hu)期(qi)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)先抑后(hou)揚(yang)，未有(you)擺脫上午(wu)(wu)的運(yun)行(xing)區間(jian)(jian)，隔(ge)月(yue)(yue)價(jia)(jia)差(cha)(cha)一度擴(kuo)至130-140元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，現貨(huo)(huo)(huo)報(bao)(bao)(bao)價(jia)(jia)進一步持堅(jian)，濕法銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)有(you)報(bao)(bao)(bao)價(jia)(jia)平水(shui)，平水(shui)銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)升(sheng)水(shui)30-40元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，好銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)報(bao)(bao)(bao)價(jia)(jia)堅(jian)挺于70-80元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，市(shi)場(chang)雖乏(fa)有(you)響(xiang)應，但成交(jiao)(jiao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)有(you)所(suo)上揚(yang)，好銅(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)已(yi)重返(fan)46000元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。

整體來看，供應中斷(duan)帶(dai)來的憂(you)慮情緒已經逐漸消(xiao)散(san)，雖身處旺季，下游(you)始終未見明顯入(ru)市，交(jiao)易上暫時以震蕩思(si)路對待。