電力發展“十三五”規劃發布:

電力十三五大幅推進電網和新能源建設

11月(yue)7日,*、*正式發布(bu)《電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)發展十(shi)三五(wu)規(gui)劃》,提出到(dao)2020年,全(quan)(quan)社會用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)達(da)到(dao)6.8-7.2億(yi)kWh,全(quan)(quan)國發電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)20億(yi)kW,其中(zhong)煤電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)爭控(kong)制在11億(yi)kW,風(feng)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)2.1億(yi)kW,太陽能發電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)1.1億(yi)kW,核電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)0.58億(yi)kW,核電(dian)(dian)開工0.3億(yi)kW。《規(gui)劃》同時明確(que)十(shi)三五(wu)期(qi)間(jian)新(xin)增西電(dian)(dian)東送輸電(dian)(dian)能力(li)(li)1.3億(yi)kW,城鄉配電(dian)(dian)網可靠率分(fen)別(bie)達(da)到(dao)99.9%和99.72%;《規(gui)劃》同時給出了十(shi)三五(wu)期(qi)間(jian)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)體(ti)制改革和電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)現(xian)貨(huo)交易的時間(jian)表。預計(ji)在電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)總體(ti)規(gui)劃的基(ji)礎上,風(feng)、光、水、核、生物質等專(zhuan)項規(gui)劃近期(qi)將(jiang)相繼(ji)出臺(tai)。

   電改時間表落地,電網建設配網、主干(gan)并舉

   規劃(hua)明確了主(zhu)干電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)仍以超(chao)、特(te)高(gao)壓為(wei)主(zhu)建(jian)設西電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東輸通道和區(qu)域環(huan)網(wang)(wang),新(xin)增(zeng)規模1.3億(yi)kW,新(xin)增(zeng)500kV以上交(jiao)流線路(lu)9.2萬km,在目前(qian)1.4億(yi)kW基礎(chu)上增(zeng)長約(yue)93%。規劃(hua)確定了電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)改(gai)時(shi)(shi)間表,16年(nian)底(di)完成交(jiao)易(yi)機構組建(jian),18年(nian)底(di)前(qian)完成用(yong)戶側市場競爭主(zhu)體培育,向(xiang)社會資(zi)本放開增(zeng)量(liang)配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)業(ye)務,啟動現(xian)貨(huo)交(jiao)易(yi)試點,20年(nian)底(di)前(qian)取(qu)消優先發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)以外的非調節性發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian),同時(shi)(shi)提出配(pei)網(wang)(wang)改(gai)造為(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)采(cai)暖、港口岸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設施接(jie)入(ru)服(fu)務,相應配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)建(jian)設有望迅速落地(di)。根據《配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)改(gai)造行動計劃(hua)》,十(shi)三五期間累計配(pei)網(wang)(wang)投資(zi)應達到(dao)1.7萬億(yi)元,考慮15-16年(nian)配(pei)網(wang)(wang)投資(zi)連續低于(yu)預(yu)期,我們認(ren)為(wei)18-20年(nian)配(pei)網(wang)(wang)投資(zi)將(jiang)實現(xian)加速增(zeng)長,同時(shi)(shi)利好配(pei)網(wang)(wang)設備和區(qu)域配(pei)售電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)運營企業(ye)。

   核電(dian)(dian)建設提(ti)速在(zai)即(ji),海(hai)上風電(dian)(dian)、分布式光伏增(zeng)量空間巨(ju)大

    規劃(hua)確定了十三(san)五末核電(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)、太(tai)陽能分(fen)(fen)別(bie)達到(dao)0.58億、2.1億、1.1億kW裝機,核電(dian)(dian)0.3億kW在建(jian),較目(mu)前(qian)增(zeng)量(liang)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)達到(dao)0.3億、0.79億、0.68億。核電(dian)(dian)重(zhong)申了14年(nian)能源遠期規劃(hua)的目(mu)標,考慮16年(nian)截至目(mu)前(qian)沒有新建(jian)核電(dian)(dian)項目(mu)獲(huo)批,17-20年(nian)每年(nian)開工(gong)的項目(mu)有望(wang)增(zeng)加至7-8個(ge);規劃(hua)提出(chu)內陸核電(dian)(dian)在十三(san)五期間開展可研和選址工(gong)作,項目(mu)開工(gong)預(yu)計將延至十三(san)五末期。風電(dian)(dian)、光伏(fu)增(zeng)量(liang)中,海(hai)上風電(dian)(dian)、光熱、分(fen)(fen)布式(shi)光伏(fu)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)達到(dao)500、500、6000萬kW,復合增(zeng)速(su)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)達到(dao)46%、48%和208%,遠*業(ye)平(ping)均增(zeng)速(su),建(jian)議關注細分(fen)(fen)領(ling)域(yu)布局的相關企業(ye)。

   騙補清查告一段(duan)落,充電(dian)基礎設施(shi)投資有望快速放量

    規劃再次重(zhong)申了充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)基礎設(she)施到2020年(nian)達到1.2萬座充(chong)(chong)(chong)換電(dian)站、480萬個充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)的(de)建設(she)目(mu)標,并明(ming)確(que)了配(pei)電(dian)網建設(she)要提(ti)供(gong)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)接入條件,電(dian)網投(tou)資(zi)的(de)分攤將(jiang)更有(you)利(li)于城(cheng)市充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)站的(de)集中建設(she)。16以(yi)來的(de)騙補(bu)(bu)清查對于電(dian)動汽(qi)車保(bao)有(you)量增速(su)和充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)補(bu)(bu)貼政策落地等均有(you)較大(da)影響,16年(nian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)建設(she)預計將(jiang)略(lve)低(di)于預期。我們預計充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)補(bu)(bu)貼政策有(you)望在17年(nian)落地,屆時(shi)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)投(tou)資(zi)將(jiang)加速(su)上升,設(she)備、運營企業均大(da)幅受益(yi).